New Study: Rapid vaccination rollout in US looking quite grim and getting harder to cover up, so we used a crystal ball computer model to make it look like these shit shots are worth a damn
Hot off the press.
This morning, a friend sent me a link to a preprint titled, “COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations averted by rapid vaccination rollout in the United States” and inquired as to whether I’d seen it or had a chance to take a look. I hadn’t, but I have now and I move to change the title to:
Rapid vaccination rollout in the United States is looking quite grim and getting harder to cover up, so we used a crystal ball computer model to make it look like these shit shots are worth a damn
I have interjected a few graphs of interest (not mine, but reposted from Joel Smalley at Dead Man Talking - check him out) as well as some of my own thoughts and also some definitions that might be helpful if this isn’t your arena. To be clear, it’s not mine either, but I’m not afraid to dust off my tin foil thinking cap, and take a gander. Also, all the more reason, as always, to do your own research.
I have included the preprint below with my own thoughts/additions spliced in. Honestly, I think my additions make it way more interesting, but that’s just me. I attempted to make my added stuff obvious by blocking and italicizing my personal interjections. Unitalicized block quotes are additional information pulled from other sources.
Abstract
Importance Randomized clinical trials have shown that the COVID-19 vaccines currently approved in the US are highly efficacious. However, more evidence is needed to understand the population-level impact of the US vaccination rollout in the face of the changing landscape of COVID-19 pandemic in the US, including variants with higher transmissibility and immune escape.
Just checking that we are all on the same page…they are citing the original trials from Pfizer and Moderna from 2020. The ones that started at 95% efficacy and then plummeted about as fast as FTX. The ones that were funded and conducted by the pharmaceutical companies. I encourage you to read some of the conflicts of interests HERE .
These graphs were not included in this “study”, but might be useful for the researchers to consider:
Objective To quantify the population-level impact of the US vaccination campaign in averting cases, hospitalizations and deaths from December 12, 2020 to June 28, 2021.
The effectiveness of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine against infection turns negative over time, according to a new study that was funded by the vaccine maker.
Yikes! Seems like this computer model study might sound way better than wtf is actually happening...I wonder if…🤔…nah…
Design Age-stratified agent-based model which included transmission dynamics of the Alpha, Gamma and Delta variants in addition to the original Wuhan-1 variant.
An agent-based model (ABM) (also sometimes related to the term multi-agent system or multi-agent simulation) is a class of computational models for simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents (both individual or collective entities such as organizations or groups) with a view to assessing their effects on the system as a whole.
In sociology, age stratification refers to the hierarchical ranking of people into age groups within a society.[1] Age stratification could also be defined as a system of inequalities linked to age. In Western societies, for example, both the old and the young are perceived and treated as relatively incompetent and excluded from much social life. Age stratification based on an ascribed status is a major source inequality, and thus may lead to ageism.[2] Ageism is a social inequality resulting from age stratification. This is a sociological concept that comes with studying aging population.[3] Age stratification within a population can have major implications, affecting things such as workforce trends, social norms, family structures, government policies, and even health outcomes.
Setting Our model was calibrated to COVID-19 outbreak and vaccine rollout in the US. Model predictions were made at the country level.
Participants Simulated age-stratified population representing US demographics.
So just to be clear…no ACTUAL people. Just a computer model. Remember when they used that computer model to shut down the world? The one that turned out to wildly overestimate the severity of covid? Just wondering if you remember that.
Main Outcomes and Measures Cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted by vaccination against COVID-19 in the US, compared to the counterfactuals of no vaccination and vaccination administered at half the actual pace.
Counterfactual:
Modal discourse concerns alternative ways things can be, e.g., what might be true, what isn’t true but could have been, what should be done. This entry focuses on counterfactual modality which concerns what is not, but could or would have been.
Sounds preeeettty scientific to me….
Results The swift vaccine rollout in the US curbed a potential resurgence of cases in April 2021, which would have been otherwise fuelled by the Alpha variant. Compared to the scenario without vaccines, we estimated that the actual vaccination program averted more than 26 million cases, 1.2 million hospitalizations and saved 279,000 lives. A vaccination campaign with half the actual rollout rate would have led to an additional 460,000 hospitalizations and 121,000 deaths.
Conclusions and Relevance The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the US has had an extraordinary impact on reducing disease burden despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants. These findings highlight that the pace of vaccination was essential for mitigating COVID-19 in the US, and underscore the urgent need to close the vaccine coverage gaps in communities across the country.
Question How effective was the United States (US) vaccination campaign in suppressing COVID-19 burden?
Findings The vaccination campaign was highly effective in curbing the COVID-19 outbreak in the US. We estimated that the vaccine rollout saved over 275,000 lives and averted 1.2 million hospitalizations.
Meaning The swift vaccine rollout in the US averted a remarkable number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants.
The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed devastating health and socioeconomic crises worldwide, causing more than 3.9 million deaths and 183 million reported infections globally1. The United States (US) alone has endured more than 600,000 deaths.
600,00 deaths OF covid or WITH Covid. Just wondering…
The federal government has also developed, authorized, and delivered highly efficacious vaccines (say the companies that are profiting from these highly efficacious vaccines) at an unprecedented pace. As of July 2, 2021, the US has administered more than 328 million doses of vaccine and 67% of adults have received at least one dose 2. The number of cases has fallen from over 300,000 per day at the apex of the pandemic in January 2021 to less than 20,000 per day in mid-June.
The precipitous decline in US cases is also notable given the emergence of more transmissible and immune-evading variants in recent months, including the B.1.1.7 (Alpha), P.1 (Gamma), and B.1.617.2 (Delta) variants. The Alpha variant, first identified in the United Kingdom, is 50% more contagious than the original SARS-CoV-2 strain3 and is associated with higher case fatality 4. The Gamma variant emerged in Brazil, and likely due to its higher transmissibility even relative to Alpha 5, came to dominate most pre-circulating variants in the US by mid-May 6. The rise of the Delta variant from the recent COVID-19 resurgence in India and other southeast Asian countries is quickly shifting the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the US. Its transmissibility is the highest among all variants detected thus far 7. Ominously, the Delta variant is also associated with reduced neutralizing activity by antibodies in sera from convalescent or vaccinated individuals 8.
Understanding the impact of vaccination in suppressing COVID-19 burden is fundamental to informing strategies for improving vaccine uptake and future planning to mitigate disease outcomes. The individual-level efficacy and safety of authorized vaccines against the original viral variant are well established based on randomized controlled trials, exceeding 90% in preventing hospitalization and death 9–11. However, the population-level effectiveness of the vaccination campaign for the US population in the face of highly transmissible variants has not yet been evaluated.
To quantify the impact of vaccination on reducing COVID-19 burden in the US, we expanded our age-stratified agent-based model to include transmission dynamics of the Alpha, Gamma and Delta variants in addition to the original Wuhan-1 variant 12. The model parameters included the population demographics of the US, an empirically determined contact network accounting for pandemic mobility patterns, and age-specific risks of severe outcomes due to COVID-19. A two-dose vaccination strategy was implemented based on the number of daily vaccine doses administered for first and second doses in different age groups 13. Vaccine efficacies against infection, symptomatic and severe disease after each dose and for each variant were derived from published estimates (Appendix Table S3). The model was calibrated to reported incidence at the national level between October 1, 2020, and June 28, 2021.
With the calibrated model, we evaluated the impact of vaccine rollout by simulating epidemic trajectories under two counterfactual scenarios of no vaccination and a temporal vaccination rate reduced to half of the actual pace. For each scenario, cumulative infections, hospitalizations and deaths were compared to the observed pandemic trend in the US with vaccination.
We found that vaccination has markedly curbed the US pandemic burden (Figure 1). Compared to the scenario without any vaccines, we estimated that the actual vaccination program saved 279,052 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 235,326 – 324,220) lives along with averting 1,249,589 (95% CrI: 1,092,199 – 1,4094,85) hospitalizations from the start of vaccination campaign on December 12, 2020 to June 28, 2021 (Appendix Fig S1). The number of cases averted during the same period was estimated to exceed 26 million. Strikingly, vaccination prevented a substantial surge that would have occurred in April 2021, during which the US could have experienced 4,501 (95% CrI: 3,035 – 6,301) deaths at the peak (Appendix, Fig S2). This toll would have exceeded the peak during the 2020-2021 winter surge due to the higher case fatality associated with the Alpha variant relative to the original virus. Instead, due to the prioritization of elderly individuals for vaccination, overall case fatality dropped despite the dominance of Alpha.
I find it interesting that we are using some crystal ball estimates to inform strategies for improving vaccine uptake. Of course.
Instead of making up a story about what would’ve happened without these miraculous shots, should we look at some ACTUAL data that includes ACTUAL people? Because….
***spoiler alert***
IT’S NOT LOOKING GOOD.
Figure 1.Impact of COVID-19 vaccination progress.
Projected number of deaths caused by different variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the US with: (A) vaccination rollout in the US; (B) a temporal vaccination rate reduced to half of the actual pace; and (C) without vaccination. Curves represent overall deaths (black), those attributable to the original variant (blue), Alpha variant (red), Gamma variant (purple), or Delta variant (orange). Solid black dots are reported deaths and shaded regions reflect the range of uncertainty in the projections.
We also found that the swift rollout of the vaccination campaign, which exceeded 3.3 million doses administered per day in April 2021, played a critical role in curtailing COVID-19 spread. Under the second counterfactual scenario (i.e., daily vaccination rates at half the reported pace), we estimated that the US would have endured an additional toll of 120,866 (95% CrI: 93,985 – 146,543) deaths and 457,685 (95% CrI: 351,034 – 570,941) hospitalizations.
The US reported the highest daily COVID-19 cases worldwide for much of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 14. Our results demonstrate the extraordinary impact of swift vaccination for averting cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The speed of vaccination also prevented another potential wave of the outbreak in April that would have otherwise been triggered by the Alpha variant. As new variants – especially the Delta variant – surge among unvaccinated populations this summer, a renewed commitment to vaccine access, particularly for those in historically under-served groups and in counties with low vaccination rates will be crucial to achieving control of the pandemic and preventing avoidable suffering.
Appears that the US traded in highest daily covid cases for highest average weekly excess mortality. Seems like fair trade.
It’s weird how Africa has such a low vaccination rate, but covid is like, hardly a thing, and Australia is vaxxed to the max and Covid infections are skyrocketing. Hmmm…I wonder what it could be 🤔. Nah….this crystal ball computer model said that the vaccine roll out saved a FUCK*TON™ of people.
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the Commonwealth Fund.
I looked into the Commonwealth Fund. It’s a non profit, so it doesn’t have to disclose its donor situation, which is convenient. I did, however, find this interesting article:
Unfortunately, the Commonwealth Fund has a very long track record of cherry picking information to distort its own research to score political points. Some years ago, it conducted a survey of employer attitudes and trumpeted the results far and wide – 58 percent (as I recall the number) of Employers Support an Employer Mandate! Wow! Whodda thunk? It was only buried very deep in the back of the report that you could find out how they got that surprising result. Employers were given only two options – given a choice between a single payer and an employer mandate, which would they prefer?
Lazy reporters rarely read an entire report. They rely solely on the press release about it, or at most, glance at the executive summary. Hence, we get stories like The Atlantic’s.
Before I bore you with the study’s references, I’ll just put this here:
References
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2.↵The New York Times. See How Vaccinations Are Going in Your County and State. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html. Published July 1, 2021. Accessed July 2, 2021.Google Scholar
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6.↵Bolze A, Cirulli ET, Luo S, et al. Rapid displacement of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 by B.1.617.2 and P.1 in the United States. bioRxiv. Published online June 21, 2021. doi:10.1101/2021.06.20.21259195Abstract/FREE Full TextGoogle Scholar
7.↵Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 12 May 2021. Published May 14, 2021. Accessed July 6, 2021. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-12-may-2021Google Scholar
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Brilliant! Need to get my tin foil suit. Finding it impossible to believe anything I hear-read-see on the MSM....
I discovered this thread from your analysis of Geert Vanden Bossche's recent post (https://conspiracysarah.substack.com/p/have-you-noticed-a-lot-of-people). I resisted getting jabbed in 2021 as I was awaiting more data than the 2+mos available when the jabs were first launched on what impact they had on my immune system.
Luckily I was first introduced to Geert through a video by Robert Malone and what an eye opener! Its amazing how much of what he said in early 2021 has come to pass. Later I also discovered Jessica Rose's article on the impact the vaccines were suspected of having on our immune systems. (See 'The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 reprograms both adaptive and innate immune responses' - https://jessicar.substack.com/p/the-bnt162b2-mrna-vaccine-against)
I can't thank these heros as well as professionals like Peter McCullough, Bryam Bridle, Ryan Cole, Paul Alexander, Paul Marik, Richard Urso and so many others enough who have sacrificed so much to get the truth out!
i could have torn this 'study' apart at school, they dont even consider where the variants come from but then i always forget doctors are stupid and they are supposedly smarter than half the population